Segunda Liga · PortugalTondela vs Amarante prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Tondela 1.7 – 0.7 Amarante expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Tondela are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 15% for Amarante.
Tondela have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.5 per game. Amarante have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.7 for Tondela, 0.7 for Amarante). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.31.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Tondela to win ✓ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.64 |
| Double chance | Tondela or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 50% | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.44 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Tondela ahead at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.32 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Tondela / FT Tondela ✓ | 38% | 2.61 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.77 | – |
Form
Tondela – last 6
| 1 Aug | @ Rio Ave | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Jul | vs São João Ver | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Jul | vs Beira-Mar | 1–2 | L |
| 25 Jul | @ Famalicao | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Jul | vs Academica | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Jul | vs Nacional | 1–1 | D |
Amarante – last 6
| 1 Aug | @ Moreirense | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Jul | @ Chaves | 1–2 | L |
| 10 May | vs União Santarém | 1–0 | W |
| 1 May | @ Trofense | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Apr | @ Mafra | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Mar | vs Academica | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tondela and Amarante.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penafiel | 10 | +12 | 22 |
| 2 |  Sporting CP B | 10 | +8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Benfica B | 10 | +6 | 20 |
| 4 |  Lusitânia Lourosa | 10 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 |  União de Leiria | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academica | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 |  Tondela | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Farense | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Vizela | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Portimonense | 10 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 |  AVS | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Leixoes | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 |  Torreense | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Amarante | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 |  Felgueiras 1932 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 |  FC Porto B | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Chaves | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Feirense | 10 | -8 | 5 |
More Segunda Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Tondela vs Amarante?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tondela vs Amarante?
On our numbers Tondela have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Amarante 15%.
How many goals will there be in Tondela vs Amarante?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Tondela vs Amarante?
Tondela vs Amarante (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.