Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Chaves to win @ 1.93 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultChaves to win ✗61% · @1.93
Double chanceChaves or draw ✗85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.58
Chaves vs Academica preview and prediction
The match
Chaves host Academica in the Segunda Liga on Saturday 8 August, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira. Chaves are 17th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Academica sit 6th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Chaves's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Guimaraes 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Academica's last 5: DDWLL Most recently they drew with Caldas 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 6. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Chaves arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Chaves and 0.7 for Academica. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Chaves 61%, draw 24%, Academica 15%.
Safer route: Chaves or draw (85%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Chaves to win at 1.93 – 61% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Chaves or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Chaves 1–0 Academica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chaves61%fair 1.63 · @1.93
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.25
Academica15%fair 6.77 · @3.80
2.43Expected goals
1.72Chaves xG
0.71Academica xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Chaves 1.7 – 0.7 Academica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chaves to win✗
61%
1.63
1.93 ▲
Double chance
Chaves or draw✗
85%
1.17
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Chaves ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chaves / FT Chaves✗
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.58
–
Form
Chaves – last 6
LLWLWW
1 Aug
@ Guimaraes
0–2
L
25 Jul
vs Guimaraes B
2–3
L
22 Jul
vs Amarante
2–1
W
18 Jul
@ Vizela
0–1
L
15 Jul
vs Fafe
4–1
W
11 Jul
@ AVS
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Academica – last 6
DDWLLL
1 Aug
@ Caldas
2–2
D
31 Jul
@ União Santarém
0–0
D
25 Jul
@ FC Porto B
3–1
W
22 Jul
@ Tondela
1–2
L
18 Jul
@ Guimaraes
0–2
L
15 Jul
@ Torreense
0–5
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chaves and Academica.
Our pick is Chaves or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Chaves vs Academica?
On our numbers Chaves have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Academica 15%.
How many goals will there be in Chaves vs Academica?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chaves vs Academica?
Our predicted score is Chaves 1–0 Academica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Chaves vs Academica?
Chaves vs Academica (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
