Haverfordwest County AFC vs Penybont prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Penybont to win @ 2.25 – our chance 53% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenybont to win ✓53% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.60
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Penybont preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Haverfordwest County AFC take on Penybont on Friday 14 August, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Bridge Meadow Stadium. Haverfordwest County AFC are 11th with 16 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Penybont sit 3rd on 36 points (in the top four). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Haverfordwest County AFC's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to The New Saints 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Penybont's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Caernarfon Town 2–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Haverfordwest County AFC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.7 for Haverfordwest County AFC and 1.3 for Penybont. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Haverfordwest County AFC 25%, draw 22%, Penybont 53%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Penybont to win at 2.25 – 53% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Haverfordwest County AFC 0–1 Penybont. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Haverfordwest County AFC25%fair 3.94 · @2.95
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.20
Penybont53%fair 1.90 · @2.25
1.99Expected goals
0.73Haverfordwest County AFC xG
1.26Penybont xG
54%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–014%
1–113%
0–211%
1–010%
1–28%
From our goals model: Haverfordwest County AFC 0.7 – 1.3 Penybont expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penybont to win✓
53%
1.90
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penybont / FT Penybont✓
28%
3.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.60
–
Form
Haverfordwest County AFC – last 6
LLWLWW
7 Aug
@ The New Saints
0–2
L
1 Aug
vs Airbus UK
0–1
L
21 Jul
vs Caerau (Ely)
2–1
W
4 Jul
vs Hamilton Academical
0–4
L
3 Apr
@ Flint Town United
1–0
W
28 Mar
vs Briton Ferry
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Penybont – last 6
WDLLLL
7 Aug
@ Caernarfon Town
2–1
W
2 Aug
vs The New Saints
0–0
D
16 Jul
@ FC Santa Coloma
0–3
L
9 Jul
vs FC Santa Coloma
0–1
L
3 Apr
vs Barry Town
0–2
L
3 Mar
@ Barry Town
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Haverfordwest County AFC and Penybont.
What is the prediction for Haverfordwest County AFC vs Penybont?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Haverfordwest County AFC vs Penybont?
On our numbers Haverfordwest County AFC have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Penybont 53%.
How many goals will there be in Haverfordwest County AFC vs Penybont?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Haverfordwest County AFC vs Penybont?
Our predicted score is Haverfordwest County AFC 0–1 Penybont, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Haverfordwest County AFC vs Penybont?
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Penybont (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Bridge Meadow Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
