Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.70 – our chance 62% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGAP Connah S Quay FC to win ✓69% · @1.36
Double chanceGAP Connah S Quay FC or draw ✓87% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.70
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.55
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.76
Holywell vs GAP Connah S Quay FC preview and prediction
The match
Holywell host GAP Connah S Quay FC in the Premier League on Friday 7 August, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Bartons North Wales Stadium. Holywell are 16th with 2 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while GAP Connah S Quay FC sit 2nd on 38 points (in the top four). A gap of 36 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Holywell's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Cardiff MET 1–6 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
GAP Connah S Quay FC's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to Caernarfon Town 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Holywell arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.1 goals: 1.2 for Holywell and 2.8 for GAP Connah S Quay FC. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Holywell 13%, draw 18%, GAP Connah S Quay FC 69%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.70 – 62% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.55, above our fair price of 1.46, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Holywell 1–2 GAP Connah S Quay FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Holywell13%fair 7.71 · @7.00
Draw18%fair 5.64 · @4.40
GAP Connah S Quay FC69%fair 1.44 · @1.36
4.06Expected goals
1.23Holywell xG
2.82GAP Connah S Quay FC xG
62%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–38%
0–27%
0–36%
1–16%
1–46%
From our goals model: Holywell 1.2 – 2.8 GAP Connah S Quay FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
GAP Connah S Quay FC to win✓
69%
1.44
1.36
Double chance
GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.60
1.70 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.55 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.53
Half-time result
GAP Connah S Quay FC ahead at half-time✓
54%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT GAP Connah S Quay FC / FT GAP Connah S Quay FC✓
48%
2.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.76
–
Form
Holywell – last 6
LWLLWW
1 Aug
@ Cardiff MET
1–6
L
8 Apr
vs Newtown AFC
6–0
W
3 Apr
vs Airbus UK
0–3
L
6 Mar
@ Llandudno
1–2
L
27 Feb
vs Denbigh Town
5–1
W
20 Feb
@ Buckley Town
2–1
W
2.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
GAP Connah S Quay FC – last 6
LLDWLD
2 Aug
vs Caernarfon Town
1–2
L
16 Jul
@ Ballkani
2–3
L
8 Jul
vs Ballkani
0–0
D
27 Jun
@ Queen of the South
1–0
W
3 Apr
@ The New Saints
1–2
L
29 Mar
vs Barry Town
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Holywell and GAP Connah S Quay FC.
What is the prediction for Holywell vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Holywell vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
On our numbers Holywell have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 18% and GAP Connah S Quay FC 69%.
How many goals will there be in Holywell vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Holywell vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
Our predicted score is Holywell 1–2 GAP Connah S Quay FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Holywell vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
Holywell vs GAP Connah S Quay FC (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 7 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Bartons North Wales Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
