Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Caernarfon Town to win @ 1.85 – our chance 64% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaernarfon Town to win ✗64% · @1.85
Double chanceCaernarfon Town or draw ✗85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.36
Caernarfon Town vs Penybont preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Caernarfon Town take on Penybont on Friday 7 August, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at The Oval. Caernarfon Town are 6th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Penybont sit 3rd on 36 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Caernarfon Town's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat GAP Connah S Quay FC 2–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.7 conceded.
Penybont's last 5: DLLLL Most recently they drew with The New Saints 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Caernarfon Town arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for Caernarfon Town and 0.6 for Penybont. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 56% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Caernarfon Town 64%, draw 21%, Penybont 15%.
Safer route: Caernarfon Town or draw (85%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Caernarfon Town to win at 1.85 – 64% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Caernarfon Town or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Caernarfon Town 1–0 Penybont. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caernarfon Town64%fair 1.55 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.50
Penybont15%fair 6.84 · @3.55
2.14Expected goals
1.58Caernarfon Town xG
0.55Penybont xG
52%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Caernarfon Town 1.6 – 0.6 Penybont expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caernarfon Town to win✗
64%
1.55
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Caernarfon Town or draw✗
85%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.95 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caernarfon Town / FT Caernarfon Town✗
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.36
–
Form
Caernarfon Town – last 6
WLLWWL
2 Aug
@ GAP Connah S Quay FC
2–1
W
16 Jul
@ FC Levadia Tallinn
0–5
L
9 Jul
vs FC Levadia Tallinn
0–5
L
20 Jun
@ Glentoran
2–1
W
3 Apr
@ Colwyn Bay
2–0
W
27 Mar
vs The New Saints
0–4
L
1.0Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Penybont – last 6
DLLLLL
2 Aug
vs The New Saints
0–0
D
16 Jul
@ FC Santa Coloma
0–3
L
9 Jul
vs FC Santa Coloma
0–1
L
3 Apr
vs Barry Town
0–2
L
3 Mar
@ Barry Town
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Colwyn Bay
1–3
L
0.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caernarfon Town and Penybont.
What is the prediction for Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?
Our pick is Caernarfon Town or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?
On our numbers Caernarfon Town have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Penybont 15%.
How many goals will there be in Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?
Our predicted score is Caernarfon Town 1–0 Penybont, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Caernarfon Town vs Penybont?
Caernarfon Town vs Penybont (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 7 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at The Oval.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
