Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultRio Ave to win ✓41% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.38
Rio Ave vs Nacional preview and prediction
The match
Rio Ave host Nacional in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT) at Estádio dos Arcos. Rio Ave are 17th with 7 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Nacional sit 13th on 10 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Rio Ave's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Alverca 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Nacional's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Famalicao 0–4 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.6 for Rio Ave and 1.4 for Nacional. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Rio Ave 41%, draw 24%, Nacional 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 62% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.62, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Rio Ave 1–1 Nacional. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Rio Ave41%fair 2.43 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.20
Nacional35%fair 2.87 · @3.00
3.00Expected goals
1.57Rio Ave xG
1.43Nacional xG
62%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Rio Ave 1.6 – 1.4 Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rio Ave to win✓
41%
2.43
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rio Ave / FT Rio Ave✗
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.38
–
Form
Rio Ave – last 6
LDLLWL
19 Sep
@ Alverca
0–1
L
14 Sep
vs Estrela
3–3
D
6 Sep
@ Santa Clara
0–4
L
28 Aug
vs Sporting CP
0–4
L
22 Aug
@ Estoril
2–0
W
15 Aug
vs FC Porto
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nacional – last 6
LLLLLW
19 Sep
vs Famalicao
0–4
L
12 Sep
vs Alverca
1–3
L
5 Sep
@ Sporting CP
0–2
L
30 Aug
vs Estrela
2–3
L
23 Aug
@ Vitória SC
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Estoril
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rio Ave and Nacional.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Rio Ave vs Nacional?
On our numbers Rio Ave have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Nacional 35%.
How many goals will there be in Rio Ave vs Nacional?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rio Ave vs Nacional?
Our predicted score is Rio Ave 1–1 Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Rio Ave vs Nacional?
Rio Ave vs Nacional (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio dos Arcos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
