Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
2
Value bet: Estrela to win @ 3.40 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultArouca to win ✓45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.13
Arouca vs Estrela preview and prediction
The match
Estrela travel to face Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 11 October (20:30 WAT). Arouca are 5th with 20 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Estrela sit 12th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Arouca's last 5: DLDWL Most recently they drew with Sporting CP 2–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Estrela's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to Academico Viseu 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 19 April 2026, finished Arouca 1–0 Estrela.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.7 for Arouca and 1.5 for Estrela. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arouca 45%, draw 21%, Estrela 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Estrela to win at 3.40 – 34% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Arouca 1–1 Estrela. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arouca45%fair 2.20 · @2.00
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.40
Estrela34%fair 2.96 · @3.40
3.21Expected goals
1.74Arouca xG
1.47Estrela xG
61%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
2–06%
From our goals model: Arouca 1.7 – 1.5 Estrela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Arouca vs Estrela?
On our numbers Arouca have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Estrela 34%.
How many goals will there be in Arouca vs Estrela?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Estrela?
Our predicted score is Arouca 1–1 Estrela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Arouca vs Estrela?
Arouca vs Estrela (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
