The Primeira Liga sees Benfica take on Vitória SC on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estádio da Luz. Benfica are 2nd with 28 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Vitória SC sit 14th on 9 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Benfica's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to FC Porto 1–3 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vitória SC's last 5: DLDLW Most recently they drew with Moreirense 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Benfica arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.3 for Benfica and 0.7 for Vitória SC. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 51%.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.91. Predicted score: Benfica 2–1 Vitória SC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Benfica73%fair 1.36 · @1.18
Draw18%fair 5.61 · @6.50
Vitória SC9%fair 11.22 · @13.00
3.00Expected goals
2.31Benfica xG
0.69Vitória SC xG
51%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Benfica 2.3 – 0.7 Vitória SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win✓
73%
1.36
1.18
Double chance
Benfica or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.94
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Benfica ahead at half-time✓
53%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✓
50%
2.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✓
13%
7.54
–
Form
Benfica – last 6
LWWWWW
20 Sep
@ FC Porto
1–3
L
16 Sep
@ AC Milan
2–0
W
13 Sep
vs GIL Vicente
3–1
W
9 Sep
@ Moreirense
4–0
W
5 Sep
@ Maritimo
3–0
W
31 Aug
vs Estoril
2–1
W
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Vitória SC – last 6
DLDLWL
20 Sep
vs Moreirense
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Academico Viseu
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Casa Pia
0–0
D
31 Aug
@ SC Braga
0–1
L
23 Aug
vs Nacional
1–0
W
14 Aug
@ Sporting CP
2–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benfica and Vitória SC.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Benfica vs Vitória SC?
On our numbers Benfica have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Vitória SC 9%.
How many goals will there be in Benfica vs Vitória SC?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Vitória SC?
Our predicted score is Benfica 2–1 Vitória SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Benfica vs Vitória SC?
Benfica vs Vitória SC (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Luz.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
