Value bet: Estoril to win @ 2.60 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEstoril to win ✗41% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.42
Nacional vs Estoril preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees Nacional take on Estoril on Sunday 16 August, kicking off at 15:30 (WAT) at Estádio da Madeira. Nacional are 13th with 10 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Estoril sit 18th on 2 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Nacional's last 5: DLDDD Most recently they drew with Santa Clara 2–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Estoril's last 5: DDDLW Most recently they drew with Famalicao 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 March 2026, finished Nacional 0–1 Estoril.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.4 for Nacional and 1.5 for Estoril. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 61%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nacional 35%, draw 24%, Estoril 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Estoril to win at 2.60 – 41% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Nacional 1–1 Estoril. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nacional35%fair 2.86 · @2.60
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.30
Estoril41%fair 2.43 · @2.60
2.85Expected goals
1.36Nacional xG
1.49Estoril xG
61%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–08%
0–26%
From our goals model: Nacional 1.4 – 1.5 Estoril expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Nacional vs Estoril?
On our numbers Nacional have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Estoril 41%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional vs Estoril?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional vs Estoril?
Our predicted score is Nacional 1–1 Estoril, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Nacional vs Estoril?
Nacional vs Estoril (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Madeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
