Value bet: Moreirense to win @ 3.50 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultArouca to win ✓43% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.03
Arouca vs Moreirense preview and prediction
The match
Arouca host Moreirense in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 16 August, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca. Arouca are 5th with 20 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Moreirense sit 9th on 14 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Arouca's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Guimaraes 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Moreirense's last 5: DLWDL Most recently they drew with SC Braga 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Arouca and 1.2 for Moreirense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Moreirense to win at 3.50 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Arouca 1–1 Moreirense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arouca43%fair 2.32 · @2.08
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.25
Moreirense35%fair 2.86 · @3.50
2.48Expected goals
1.33Arouca xG
1.16Moreirense xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Arouca 1.3 – 1.2 Moreirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arouca to win✓
43%
2.32
2.08
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arouca / FT Arouca✓
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.03
–
Form
Arouca – last 6
WWLDDL
8 Aug
@ Guimaraes
1–0
W
1 Aug
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Santa Clara
0–3
L
22 Jul
@ Famalicao
0–0
D
18 Jul
@ Feirense
0–0
D
11 Jul
@ Rio Ave
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Moreirense – last 6
DLWDLD
9 Aug
vs SC Braga
2–2
D
1 Aug
@ Felgueiras 1932
1–2
L
1 Aug
vs Amarante
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ GIL Vicente
2–2
D
22 Jul
@ Santa Clara
1–2
L
18 Jul
vs AVS
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arouca and Moreirense.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Arouca vs Moreirense?
On our numbers Arouca have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Moreirense 35%.
How many goals will there be in Arouca vs Moreirense?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Moreirense?
Our predicted score is Arouca 1–1 Moreirense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Arouca vs Moreirense?
Arouca vs Moreirense (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
