Primeira Liga · Portugal · Estádio Municipal de FamalicãoFamalicao vs Maritimo prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Famalicao to win @ 1.76 – our chance 65% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Famalicao 1.5 – 0.5 Maritimo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Famalicao are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 13% for Maritimo.
Famalicao have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.7 per game. Maritimo have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.5 for Famalicao, 0.5 for Maritimo). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (21%), 2–0 (16%), 0–0 (13%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.25. For a bigger price, Famalicao to win at 1.76 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Famalicao to win ✗ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.76 ▲ |
| Double chance | Famalicao or draw ✗ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 50% | 1.98 | 1.90 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.35 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.11 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Famalicao / FT Famalicao ✗ | 39% | 2.58 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 21% | 4.87 | – |
Form
Famalicao – last 6
| 7 Aug | @ Estoril | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Jul | vs Como | 2–3 | L |
| 25 Jul | vs Tondela | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Jul | vs Arouca | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Jul | vs Penafiel | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Jul | vs Lusitânia Lourosa | 1–0 | W |
Maritimo – last 6
| 8 Aug | vs Casa Pia | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Jul | vs Estrela | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Jul | vs Machico | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Jul | vs Camacha | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Jul | vs Leixoes | 1–5 | L |
| 14 Jul | vs AVS | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Famalicao and Maritimo.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 11 | +22 | 33 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 11 | +20 | 28 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 11 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 11 | +2 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicao | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 |  Nacional | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 |  Vitória SC | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 |  Maritimo | 10 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 11 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 11 | -15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | -14 | 2 |
More Primeira Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Famalicao vs Maritimo?
On our numbers Famalicao have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Maritimo 13%.
How many goals will there be in Famalicao vs Maritimo?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Famalicao vs Maritimo (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Famalicão.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.