Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Guimaraes to win @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGuimaraes to win ✗58% · @1.90
Double chanceGuimaraes or draw ✗82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.02
Guimaraes vs Arouca preview and prediction
The match
Guimaraes host Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 8 August, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. Guimaraes are 14th with 9 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Arouca sit 5th on 20 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Guimaraes's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Chaves 2–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Arouca's last 5: WLDDL Most recently they beat Lusitânia Lourosa 2–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 6. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Guimaraes and 0.9 for Arouca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Guimaraes 58%, draw 24%, Arouca 18%.
Safer route: Guimaraes or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Guimaraes to win at 1.90 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Guimaraes or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Guimaraes 1–0 Arouca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Guimaraes58%fair 1.73 · @1.90
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.50
Arouca18%fair 5.43 · @3.90
2.65Expected goals
1.76Guimaraes xG
0.89Arouca xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Guimaraes 1.8 – 0.9 Arouca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guimaraes to win✗
58%
1.73
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Guimaraes or draw✗
82%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Half-time result
Guimaraes ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guimaraes / FT Guimaraes✗
36%
2.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.02
–
Form
Guimaraes – last 6
WDWWLL
1 Aug
vs Chaves
2–0
W
26 Jul
@ Nottingham Forest
1–1
D
24 Jul
@ Al-Ahli Jeddah
3–1
W
18 Jul
vs Academica
2–0
W
11 May
vs Casa Pia
0–1
L
4 May
@ Sporting CP
1–5
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Arouca – last 6
WLDDLW
1 Aug
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Santa Clara
0–3
L
22 Jul
@ Famalicao
0–0
D
18 Jul
@ Feirense
0–0
D
11 Jul
@ Rio Ave
1–2
L
11 May
@ GIL Vicente
3–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Guimaraes and Arouca.
Our pick is Guimaraes or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Guimaraes vs Arouca?
On our numbers Guimaraes have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Arouca 18%.
How many goals will there be in Guimaraes vs Arouca?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Our predicted score is Guimaraes 1–0 Arouca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Guimaraes vs Arouca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
