Value bet: Casa Pia to win @ 2.70 – our chance 50% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +34%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCasa Pia to win ✗50% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.93
Maritimo vs Casa Pia preview and prediction
The match
Casa Pia travel to Estadio do Maritimo in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 8 August (15:30 WAT) to face Maritimo. Maritimo are 15th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Casa Pia sit 16th on 8 points (in the bottom three). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Maritimo's last 5: DDWLW Most recently they drew with Estrela 1–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 6. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Casa Pia's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to Leixoes 2–6 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.1 for Maritimo and 1.5 for Casa Pia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Maritimo 29%, draw 21%, Casa Pia 50%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Casa Pia to win at 2.70 – 50% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Maritimo 1–1 Casa Pia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Maritimo29%fair 3.40 · @2.44
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.45
Casa Pia50%fair 2.01 · @2.70
2.61Expected goals
1.09Maritimo xG
1.52Casa Pia xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Maritimo 1.1 – 1.5 Casa Pia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Casa Pia to win✗
50%
2.01
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Casa Pia / FT Casa Pia✗
28%
3.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.93
–
Form
Maritimo – last 6
DDWLWW
29 Jul
vs Estrela
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Machico
0–0
D
22 Jul
vs Camacha
2–0
W
17 Jul
vs Leixoes
1–5
L
14 Jul
vs AVS
2–0
W
1 May
vs Leixoes
3–2
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Casa Pia – last 6
LLWWDW
1 Aug
@ Leixoes
2–6
L
25 Jul
@ Benfica B
0–1
L
18 Jul
@ Estrela
2–1
W
28 May
vs Torreense
2–0
W
20 May
@ Torreense
0–0
D
11 May
@ Guimaraes
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Maritimo and Casa Pia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
On our numbers Maritimo have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Casa Pia 50%.
How many goals will there be in Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
Our predicted score is Maritimo 1–1 Casa Pia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
Maritimo vs Casa Pia (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio do Maritimo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
