Primeira Liga · PortugalEstrela vs Sporting CP prediction & analysis
Sporting CP to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.43 · bookmaker 1.23 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 56% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Estrela 0.8 – 2.3 Sporting CP expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Sporting CP travel as clear favourites – 70% to win, against 10% for Estrela.
Estrela have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.8 per game. Sporting CP have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 3.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. Sporting CP come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.1 goals (0.8 for Estrela, 2.3 for Sporting CP). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 0–2 (12%), 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%).
Our pick is Sporting CP to win at a 70% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.23 is close to our fair price of 1.43. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.00 is our value angle (56% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sporting CP to win ✗ | 70% | 1.43 | 1.23 |
| Double chance | Sporting CP or draw ✓ | 90% | 1.11 | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.80 | 2.00 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | 1.18 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.57 |
| Half-time result | Sporting CP ahead at half-time ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Sporting CP / FT Sporting CP ✗ | 47% | 2.11 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–2 ✗ | 12% | 8.56 | – |
Form
Estrela – last 6
| 1 Aug | vs Al-Nassr | 4–2 | W |
| 29 Jul | @ Maritimo | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Jul | vs Nacional | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Jul | vs Casa Pia | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Jul | vs Naval 1893 | 2–0 | W |
| 11 May | vs Famalicao | 0–0 | D |
Sporting CP – last 6
| 31 Jul | vs Nottingham Forest | 4–1 | W |
| 25 Jul | vs Monaco | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Jul | vs Strasbourg | 7–0 | W |
| 14 Jul | vs Celtic | 4–1 | W |
| 24 May | vs Torreense | 1–1 | D |
| 11 May | @ Rio Ave | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estrela and Sporting CP.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 11 | +22 | 33 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 11 | +20 | 28 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 11 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 11 | +2 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicao | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 |  Nacional | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 |  Vitória SC | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 |  Maritimo | 10 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 11 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 11 | -15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | -14 | 2 |
More Primeira Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Estrela vs Sporting CP?
Our pick is Sporting CP to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Estrela vs Sporting CP?
On our numbers Estrela have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sporting CP 70%.
How many goals will there be in Estrela vs Sporting CP?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Estrela vs Sporting CP?
Estrela vs Sporting CP (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.