FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen prediction & analysis
88%
Footrivo pick
FSV Mainz 05 or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: FSV Mainz 05 to win @ 1.70 – our chance 67% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFSV Mainz 05 to win ✗67% · @1.70
Double chanceFSV Mainz 05 or draw ✗88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.53
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.57
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen preview and prediction
The match
Werder Bremen travel to Mewa Arena in the Bundesliga on Saturday 24 October (14:30 WAT) to face FSV Mainz 05. FSV Mainz 05 are 12th with 10 points from 9 games (in the bottom half), while Werder Bremen sit 6th on 15 points (in the top half).
Form guide
FSV Mainz 05's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat FC Schalke 04 1–0 away. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Werder Bremen's last 5: DDWDW Most recently they drew with SC Paderborn 07 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
FSV Mainz 05 arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 March 2026, finished Werder Bremen 0–2 FSV Mainz 05.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 2.8 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.2 for Werder Bremen. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: FSV Mainz 05 to win at 1.70 – 67% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FSV Mainz 05 or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Werder Bremen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FSV Mainz 0567%fair 1.49 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.90
Werder Bremen12%fair 8.49 · @4.00
4.00Expected goals
2.77FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.23Werder Bremen xG
65%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
3–18%
2–07%
3–06%
1–16%
4–16%
From our goals model: FSV Mainz 05 2.8 – 1.2 Werder Bremen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
Our pick is FSV Mainz 05 or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
On our numbers FSV Mainz 05 have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Werder Bremen 12%.
How many goals will there be in FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
Our predicted score is FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Werder Bremen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Mewa Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
