FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen preview and prediction
The match
Bayer Leverkusen travel to MEWA Arena in the Bundesliga on Saturday 10 October (14:30 WAT) to face FSV Mainz 05. FSV Mainz 05 are 12th with 10 points from 9 games (in the bottom half), while Bayer Leverkusen sit 5th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
FSV Mainz 05's last 5: WWLWD Most recently they beat Waldhof Mannheim 3–0 away. They are scoring freely – 3.7 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bayer Leverkusen's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat RB Leipzig 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 1.8 for FSV Mainz 05 and 2.1 for Bayer Leverkusen. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 74% and both teams to score at 71%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 71% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FSV Mainz 0533%fair 3.06 · @2.88
Draw20%fair 4.92 · @3.60
Bayer Leverkusen47%fair 2.13 · @2.20
3.88Expected goals
1.76FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.12Bayer Leverkusen xG
71%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–28%
1–18%
2–27%
2–17%
1–36%
2–35%
From our goals model: FSV Mainz 05 1.8 – 2.1 Bayer Leverkusen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bayer Leverkusen to win✓
47%
2.13
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
71%
1.42
1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
Bayer Leverkusen ahead at half-time✗
38%
2.66
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bayer Leverkusen / FT Bayer Leverkusen✗
29%
3.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.23
–
Form
FSV Mainz 05 – last 6
WWLWDW
3 Oct
@ Waldhof Mannheim
3–0
W
19 Sep
@ Borussia Mönchengladbach
4–3
W
12 Sep
vs Eintracht Frankfurt
1–3
L
6 Sep
@ Hamburger SV
5–0
W
29 Aug
vs SC Paderborn 07
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ Krieschow
9–0
W
3.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Bayer Leverkusen – last 6
WWDWLW
20 Sep
vs RB Leipzig
2–0
W
16 Sep
vs Celje
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ FC Augsburg
2–2
D
5 Sep
vs Union Berlin
4–0
W
29 Aug
@ SV Elversberg
2–3
L
22 Aug
@ SV Wehen
4–0
W
2.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen.
What is the prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
On our numbers FSV Mainz 05 have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Bayer Leverkusen 47%.
How many goals will there be in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 71% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our predicted score is FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at MEWA Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
