Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: 1. FC Köln to win @ 2.40 – our chance 44% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Result1. FC Köln to win ✗44% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @1.50
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.92
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln preview and prediction
The match
Hamburger SV host 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga on Saturday 19 September, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Volksparkstadion. Hamburger SV are 11th with 12 points from 9 games (in the bottom half), while 1. FC Köln sit 15th on 9 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Hamburger SV's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to RB Leipzig 0–5 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.5 conceded.
1. FC Köln's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Werder Bremen 1–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
1. FC Köln arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 1.9 for Hamburger SV and 2.1 for 1. FC Köln. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score in 67% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: 1. FC Köln to win at 2.40 – 44% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 67% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Hamburger SV 1–2 1. FC Köln. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Hamburger SV35%fair 2.86 · @2.62
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.40
1. FC Köln44%fair 2.26 · @2.40
4.00Expected goals
1.88Hamburger SV xG
2.121. FC Köln xG
67%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–28%
1–17%
2–27%
2–17%
1–35%
2–35%
From our goals model: Hamburger SV 1.9 – 2.1 1. FC Köln expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
1. FC Köln to win✗
44%
2.26
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
67%
1.48
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
1. FC Köln ahead at half-time✗
36%
2.76
–
Half-time / full-time
HT 1. FC Köln / FT 1. FC Köln✗
28%
3.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.92
–
Form
Hamburger SV – last 6
LLLWWD
13 Sep
@ RB Leipzig
0–5
L
6 Sep
vs FSV Mainz 05
0–5
L
29 Aug
@ Borussia Dortmund
0–2
L
24 Aug
@ Verl
3–0
W
15 Aug
@ Toulouse
2–1
W
8 Aug
vs Lille
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
1. FC Köln – last 6
DLWWWD
12 Sep
vs Werder Bremen
1–1
D
4 Sep
@ VfB Stuttgart
1–4
L
29 Aug
vs 1899 Hoffenheim
3–2
W
24 Aug
@ Würzburger Kickers
2–1
W
8 Aug
vs Real Sociedad
2–1
W
31 Jul
vs Hertha BSC
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln.
What is the prediction for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
On our numbers Hamburger SV have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 21% and 1. FC Köln 44%.
How many goals will there be in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
Our predicted score is Hamburger SV 1–2 1. FC Köln, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Volksparkstadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
