VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund preview and prediction
The match
VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on Saturday 19 September, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT) at MHP Arena. VfB Stuttgart are 8th with 12 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd on 21 points (in the top four).
Form guide
VfB Stuttgart's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to 1899 Hoffenheim 1–2 away. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Borussia Dortmund's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat SC Paderborn 07 3–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Borussia Dortmund arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 2.0 for VfB Stuttgart and 2.0 for Borussia Dortmund. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score in 69% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 69% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: VfB Stuttgart 2–1 Borussia Dortmund. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
VfB Stuttgart39%fair 2.55 · @2.38
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.60
Borussia Dortmund38%fair 2.60 · @2.62
4.00Expected goals
2.01VfB Stuttgart xG
1.99Borussia Dortmund xG
69%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–17%
1–17%
2–27%
1–27%
3–15%
3–25%
From our goals model: VfB Stuttgart 2.0 – 2.0 Borussia Dortmund expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
VfB Stuttgart to win✗
39%
2.55
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
VfB Stuttgart ahead at half-time✗
34%
2.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT VfB Stuttgart / FT VfB Stuttgart✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
13.59
–
Form
VfB Stuttgart – last 6
LWWLWL
12 Sep
@ 1899 Hoffenheim
1–2
L
9 Sep
vs Viking
3–1
W
4 Sep
vs 1. FC Köln
4–1
W
28 Aug
@ Bayern München
1–5
L
21 Aug
@ Hansa Rostock
4–0
W
15 Aug
@ Fulham
0–1
L
2.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Borussia Dortmund – last 6
WWWWWL
12 Sep
vs SC Paderborn 07
3–0
W
8 Sep
vs Villarreal
3–2
W
5 Sep
@ 1899 Hoffenheim
3–2
W
1 Sep
@ HEBC
5–0
W
29 Aug
vs Hamburger SV
2–0
W
22 Aug
vs Bayern München
1–2
L
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund.
What is the prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
On our numbers VfB Stuttgart have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Borussia Dortmund 38%.
How many goals will there be in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our predicted score is VfB Stuttgart 2–1 Borussia Dortmund, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at MHP Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
