SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
SC Freiburg or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
2
Value bet: SC Freiburg to win @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSC Freiburg to win ✓58% · @1.95
Double chanceSC Freiburg or draw ✓80% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓14% · fair 7.34
SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg preview and prediction
The match
SC Paderborn 07 host SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday 5 September, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Home Deluxe Arena. SC Paderborn 07 are 13th with 10 points from 9 games (in the bottom half), while SC Freiburg sit 3rd on 19 points (in the top four).
Form guide
SC Paderborn 07's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with FSV Mainz 05 0–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
SC Freiburg's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Werder Bremen 4–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 3.5 goals a game.
SC Freiburg arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.8 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.7 for SC Freiburg. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: SC Freiburg to win at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was SC Freiburg or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.25, so there is value in it. Predicted score: SC Paderborn 07 0–1 SC Freiburg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
SC Paderborn 0720%fair 4.96 · @3.40
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.50
SC Freiburg58%fair 1.72 · @1.95
2.50Expected goals
0.84SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.66SC Freiburg xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: SC Paderborn 07 0.8 – 1.7 SC Freiburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
SC Freiburg to win✓
58%
1.72
1.95 ▲
Double chance
SC Freiburg or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT SC Freiburg / FT SC Freiburg✓
35%
2.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
14%
7.34
–
Form
SC Paderborn 07 – last 6
DWDWDD
29 Aug
@ FSV Mainz 05
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ Phönix Lübeck
4–2
W
8 Aug
@ Werder Bremen
2–2
D
1 Aug
@ VfL Osnabrück
2–0
W
25 May
vs VfL Wolfsburg
1–1
D
21 May
@ VfL Wolfsburg
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
SC Freiburg – last 6
WWWWWW
30 Aug
vs Werder Bremen
4–1
W
27 Aug
vs Motherwell
4–1
W
23 Aug
@ Fortuna Düsseldorf
5–1
W
20 Aug
@ Motherwell
3–1
W
15 Aug
vs Crystal Palace
3–0
W
8 Aug
vs Strasbourg
2–0
W
3.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between SC Paderborn 07 and SC Freiburg.
What is the prediction for SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
Our pick is SC Freiburg or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
On our numbers SC Paderborn 07 have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 22% and SC Freiburg 58%.
How many goals will there be in SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
Our predicted score is SC Paderborn 07 0–1 SC Freiburg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Home Deluxe Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
