Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Bastia to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBastia to win ✓62% · @1.85
Double chanceBastia or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.81
Bastia vs Quevilly preview and prediction
The match
Bastia host Quevilly in the National 1 on Saturday 31 October, with kick-off at 14:45 (WAT) at Stade Armand Cesari. Bastia are 13th with 15 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Quevilly sit 10th on 16 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Bastia's last 5: DDLDW Most recently they drew with Concarneau 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Quevilly's last 5: WLDDW Most recently they beat Orleans 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Quevilly arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Bastia and 0.6 for Quevilly. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bastia 62%, draw 25%, Quevilly 13%.
Safer route: Bastia or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Bastia to win at 1.85 – 62% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Bastia or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bastia 1–0 Quevilly. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bastia62%fair 1.62 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.10
Quevilly13%fair 7.56 · @3.80
2.25Expected goals
1.63Bastia xG
0.62Quevilly xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–011%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Bastia 1.6 – 0.6 Quevilly expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bastia to win✓
62%
1.62
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Bastia or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bastia / FT Bastia✗
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.81
–
Form
Bastia – last 6
DDLDWL
17 Oct
@ Concarneau
1–1
D
1 Oct
vs Orleans
1–1
D
26 Sep
@ Gobelins
0–1
L
17 Sep
vs Cannes
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Amiens
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Quevilly – last 6
WLDDWD
17 Oct
vs Orleans
3–2
W
3 Oct
@ Cannes
1–3
L
26 Sep
vs Amiens
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Versailles
0–0
D
12 Sep
vs Le Puy Foot
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ La Roche VF
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bastia and Quevilly.
Our pick is Bastia or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Bastia vs Quevilly?
On our numbers Bastia have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Quevilly 13%.
How many goals will there be in Bastia vs Quevilly?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bastia vs Quevilly?
Our predicted score is Bastia 1–0 Quevilly, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Bastia vs Quevilly?
Bastia vs Quevilly (National 1) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Armand Cesari.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
