Value bet: A Madrid III to win @ 3.54 – our chance 34% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultRSD Alcalá to win45% · @1.79
Double chanceEither team to win79% · @1.19
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @1.56
GoalsOver 1.5 goals77% · @1.16
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.95
RSD Alcalá vs A Madrid III preview and prediction
The match
RSD Alcalá host A Madrid III in the Segunda División RFEF Group 5 on Sunday 15 November, with kick-off at 12:00 (WAT). RSD Alcalá are 13th with 10 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while A Madrid III sit 5th on 18 points (in the top half).
Form guide
RSD Alcalá's last 5: DDDLD Most recently they drew with Atlético Paso 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
A Madrid III's last 5: DWLDD Most recently they drew with Atlético Tordesillas 3–3 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
A Madrid III arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for RSD Alcalá and 1.2 for A Madrid III. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: RSD Alcalá 45%, draw 21%, A Madrid III 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.56.
Value angle: A Madrid III to win at 3.54 – 34% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Prediction
The Footrivo pick: Under 3.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: RSD Alcalá 1–1 A Madrid III. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
RSD Alcalá45%fair 2.20 · @1.79
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.60
A Madrid III34%fair 2.98 · @3.54
2.77Expected goals
1.54RSD Alcalá xG
1.23A Madrid III xG
52%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–07%
1–27%
From our goals model: RSD Alcalá 1.5 – 1.2 A Madrid III expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
RSD Alcalá
A Madrid III
Attack vs Segunda División RFEF Group 5 average
+1%
+9%
Goals conceded vs average
-6%
-9%
Our expected goals here
1.54
1.20
Our own ratings from every Segunda División RFEF Group 5 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
RSD Alcalá to win
45%
2.20
1.79
Double chance
Either team to win
79%
1.27
1.19
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.92
1.56
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
77%
1.29
1.16
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
55%
1.83
1.61
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
67%
1.50
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT RSD Alcalá / FT RSD Alcalá
26%
3.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.95
–
Form
RSD Alcalá – last 6
DDDLDD
8 Nov
@ Atlético Paso
1–1
D
1 Nov
@ Conquense
2–2
D
27 Oct
vs Las Palmas
1–1
D
24 Oct
vs SS Reyes
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Real Madrid III
0–0
D
11 Oct
@ Calvo Sotelo
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
A Madrid III – last 6
DWLDDW
8 Nov
vs Atlético Tordesillas
3–3
D
31 Oct
vs CF Talavera
1–0
W
25 Oct
@ Albacete II
1–2
L
17 Oct
vs Gimnástica Segoviana
1–1
D
11 Oct
@ Navalcarnero
1–1
D
4 Oct
vs Conquense
3–2
W
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between RSD Alcalá and A Madrid III.
What is the prediction for RSD Alcalá vs A Madrid III?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win RSD Alcalá vs A Madrid III?
On our numbers RSD Alcalá have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and A Madrid III 34%.
How many goals will there be in RSD Alcalá vs A Madrid III?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for RSD Alcalá vs A Madrid III?
Our predicted score is RSD Alcalá 1–1 A Madrid III, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is RSD Alcalá vs A Madrid III?
RSD Alcalá vs A Madrid III (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
