Value bet: Real Madrid III to win @ 3.50 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRSD Alcalá to win ✗45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.91
RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III preview and prediction
The match
Real Madrid III travel to face RSD Alcalá in the Segunda División RFEF Group 5 on Sunday 18 October (11:00 WAT). RSD Alcalá are 13th with 10 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Real Madrid III sit 11th on 11 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
RSD Alcalá's last 5: DLLWL Most recently they drew with Calvo Sotelo 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Real Madrid III's last 5: DDLLD Most recently they drew with Atlético Tordesillas 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
RSD Alcalá arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.2 for RSD Alcalá and 0.9 for Real Madrid III. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: RSD Alcalá 45%, draw 22%, Real Madrid III 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Real Madrid III to win at 3.50 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.91. Predicted score: RSD Alcalá 1–1 Real Madrid III. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
RSD Alcalá45%fair 2.23 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.00
Real Madrid III33%fair 3.06 · @3.50
2.08Expected goals
1.16RSD Alcalá xG
0.92Real Madrid III xG
51%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: RSD Alcalá 1.2 – 0.9 Real Madrid III expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
RSD Alcalá to win✗
45%
2.23
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.63
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT RSD Alcalá / FT RSD Alcalá✗
23%
4.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.91
–
Form
RSD Alcalá – last 6
DLLWLW
11 Oct
@ Calvo Sotelo
0–0
D
4 Oct
vs Navalcarnero
1–3
L
27 Sep
@ Salamanca UDS
0–3
L
20 Sep
vs Gimnástica Segoviana
5–2
W
13 Sep
@ Guadalajara
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs CF Talavera
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Real Madrid III – last 6
DDLLDD
11 Oct
vs Atlético Tordesillas
0–0
D
7 Oct
vs Guadalajara
1–1
D
3 Oct
@ Atlético Paso
0–1
L
27 Sep
@ A Madrid III
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ CF Talavera
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Albacete II
0–0
D
0.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between RSD Alcalá and Real Madrid III.
What is the prediction for RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III?
On our numbers RSD Alcalá have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Real Madrid III 33%.
How many goals will there be in RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III?
Our predicted score is RSD Alcalá 1–1 Real Madrid III, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III?
RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
