Value bet: CF Talavera to win @ 3.70 – our chance 33% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNumancia to win ✗43% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓72% · fair 1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.16
Numancia vs CF Talavera preview and prediction
The match
CF Talavera travel to face Numancia in the Segunda División RFEF Group 5 on Sunday 18 October (16:00 WAT). Numancia are 1st with 19 points from 10 games (top of the table), while CF Talavera sit 8th on 15 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Numancia's last 5: DDWDW Most recently they drew with Real Ávila 1–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
CF Talavera's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat Atlético Paso 2–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for Numancia and 0.8 for CF Talavera. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: CF Talavera to win at 3.70 – 33% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 2.15, above our fair price of 1.97, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Numancia 1–1 CF Talavera. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Numancia43%fair 2.31 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @2.80
CF Talavera33%fair 3.05 · @3.70
1.83Expected goals
1.01Numancia xG
0.82CF Talavera xG
51%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
0–016%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Numancia 1.0 – 0.8 CF Talavera expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Numancia to win✗
43%
2.31
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
24%
4.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.16
–
Form
Numancia – last 6
DDWDWW
11 Oct
@ Real Ávila
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ Getafe II
0–0
D
27 Sep
vs Guadalajara
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ SS Reyes
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs A Madrid III
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Atlético Paso
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
CF Talavera – last 6
WWWDDD
11 Oct
vs Atlético Paso
2–1
W
3 Oct
@ Albacete II
4–0
W
27 Sep
vs Real Valladolid II
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ Getafe II
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Real Madrid III
0–0
D
9 Sep
vs Navalcarnero
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Numancia and CF Talavera.
What is the prediction for Numancia vs CF Talavera?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.15.
Who will win Numancia vs CF Talavera?
On our numbers Numancia have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and CF Talavera 33%.
How many goals will there be in Numancia vs CF Talavera?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Numancia vs CF Talavera?
Our predicted score is Numancia 1–1 CF Talavera, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Numancia vs CF Talavera?
Numancia vs CF Talavera (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
