Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
2
Value bet: Numancia to win @ 2.35 – our chance 47% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNumancia to win ✗47% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗59% · fair 1.69
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.70
Real Ávila vs Numancia preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 5 sees Real Ávila take on Numancia on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT). Real Ávila are 17th with 7 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Numancia sit 1st on 19 points (top of the table). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Real Ávila's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to SS Reyes 0–3 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Numancia's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Getafe II 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Numancia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.9 for Real Ávila and 1.2 for Numancia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Real Ávila 31%, draw 22%, Numancia 47%.
Value angle: Numancia to win at 2.35 – 47% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Real Ávila 0–1 Numancia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Real Ávila31%fair 3.24 · @2.75
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.00
Numancia47%fair 2.14 · @2.35
2.08Expected goals
0.89Real Ávila xG
1.19Numancia xG
41%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
1–113%
0–013%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Real Ávila 0.9 – 1.2 Numancia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Numancia to win✗
47%
2.14
2.35 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Numancia / FT Numancia✗
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.70
–
Form
Real Ávila – last 6
LWWLLW
4 Oct
@ SS Reyes
0–3
L
27 Sep
vs Getafe II
1–0
W
20 Sep
vs Calvo Sotelo
2–1
W
13 Sep
@ Navalcarnero
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ A Madrid III
1–2
L
12 Aug
@ Atlético Tordesillas
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Numancia – last 6
DWDWWW
4 Oct
@ Getafe II
0–0
D
27 Sep
vs Guadalajara
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ SS Reyes
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs A Madrid III
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Atlético Paso
2–0
W
22 Aug
vs Zaragoza
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Ávila and Numancia.
What is the prediction for Real Ávila vs Numancia?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Real Ávila vs Numancia?
On our numbers Real Ávila have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Numancia 47%.
How many goals will there be in Real Ávila vs Numancia?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Ávila vs Numancia?
Our predicted score is Real Ávila 0–1 Numancia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Real Ávila vs Numancia?
Real Ávila vs Numancia (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
