Value bet: Atlético Paso to win @ 3.50 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCalvo Sotelo to win ✗40% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.37
Calvo Sotelo vs Atlético Paso preview and prediction
The match
Calvo Sotelo host Atlético Paso in the Segunda División RFEF Group 5 on Sunday 13 September, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT). Calvo Sotelo are 18th with 6 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Atlético Paso sit 15th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Calvo Sotelo's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Gimnástica Segoviana 0–3 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Atlético Paso's last 5: LDWDD Most recently they lost to Numancia 0–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Calvo Sotelo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Calvo Sotelo and 1.2 for Atlético Paso. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 53%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Calvo Sotelo 40%, draw 24%, Atlético Paso 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Atlético Paso to win at 3.50 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.89, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Calvo Sotelo 1–1 Atlético Paso. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Calvo Sotelo40%fair 2.49 · @2.00
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.00
Atlético Paso35%fair 2.83 · @3.50
2.50Expected goals
1.30Calvo Sotelo xG
1.20Atlético Paso xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Calvo Sotelo 1.3 – 1.2 Atlético Paso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Calvo Sotelo to win✗
40%
2.49
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Calvo Sotelo / FT Calvo Sotelo✗
22%
4.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.37
–
Form
Calvo Sotelo – last 6
LWWDWW
6 Sep
vs Gimnástica Segoviana
0–3
L
2 Apr
@ Marchamalo
3–1
W
15 Mar
vs Tarancón
2–0
W
8 Mar
@ Pedroñeras
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Sonseca
3–1
W
22 Feb
vs San Clemente
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atlético Paso – last 6
LDWDDD
6 Sep
vs Numancia
0–2
L
10 May
@ Herbania
1–1
D
3 May
vs Las Palmas III
1–0
W
19 Apr
vs Telde
1–1
D
12 Apr
@ Marino
0–0
D
2 Apr
vs Mensajero
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Calvo Sotelo and Atlético Paso.
What is the prediction for Calvo Sotelo vs Atlético Paso?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Calvo Sotelo vs Atlético Paso?
On our numbers Calvo Sotelo have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atlético Paso 35%.
How many goals will there be in Calvo Sotelo vs Atlético Paso?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Calvo Sotelo vs Atlético Paso?
Our predicted score is Calvo Sotelo 1–1 Atlético Paso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Calvo Sotelo vs Atlético Paso?
Calvo Sotelo vs Atlético Paso (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
