Value bet: Real Madrid III to win @ 3.50 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCF Talavera to win ✗43% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.34
CF Talavera vs Real Madrid III preview and prediction
The match
Real Madrid III travel to Estadio El Prado in the Segunda División RFEF Group 5 on Sunday 13 September (16:00 WAT) to face CF Talavera. CF Talavera are 8th with 15 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Real Madrid III sit 11th on 11 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
CF Talavera's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Navalcarnero 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Real Madrid III's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Albacete II 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Real Madrid III arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 0.8 for CF Talavera and 0.7 for Real Madrid III. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: CF Talavera 43%, draw 24%, Real Madrid III 33%.
Both teams to score: no (56%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Real Madrid III to win at 3.50 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: CF Talavera 0–0 Real Madrid III. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CF Talavera43%fair 2.31 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @2.80
Real Madrid III33%fair 3.05 · @3.50
1.50Expected goals
0.84CF Talavera xG
0.66Real Madrid III xG
44%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–022%
1–019%
0–115%
1–112%
2–08%
2–15%
From our goals model: CF Talavera 0.8 – 0.7 Real Madrid III expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CF Talavera to win✗
43%
2.31
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
57%
1.74
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
29%
3.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.34
–
Form
CF Talavera – last 6
DLLDLD
9 Sep
vs Navalcarnero
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ RSD Alcalá
0–3
L
19 Aug
vs Getafe II
0–1
L
14 Aug
@ Illescas
1–1
D
10 May
@ Osasuna II
1–2
L
22 Mar
@ Guadalajara
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Real Madrid III – last 6
DWLWWW
6 Sep
vs Albacete II
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Gimnástica Segoviana
1–0
W
3 May
vs Conquense
0–1
L
26 Apr
@ SS Reyes
3–0
W
14 Apr
vs Colonia Moscardó
1–0
W
11 Apr
@ Las Palmas II
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CF Talavera and Real Madrid III.
What is the prediction for CF Talavera vs Real Madrid III?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win CF Talavera vs Real Madrid III?
On our numbers CF Talavera have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Real Madrid III 33%.
How many goals will there be in CF Talavera vs Real Madrid III?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CF Talavera vs Real Madrid III?
Our predicted score is CF Talavera 0–0 Real Madrid III, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is CF Talavera vs Real Madrid III?
CF Talavera vs Real Madrid III (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Prado.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
