Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.85Odds
2
Value bet: RSD Alcalá to win @ 3.50 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGuadalajara to win ✓40% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.85
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 13.25
Guadalajara vs RSD Alcalá preview and prediction
The match
Guadalajara host RSD Alcalá in the Segunda División RFEF Group 5 on Sunday 13 September, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT). Guadalajara are 9th with 13 points from 10 games (in the top half), while RSD Alcalá sit 13th on 10 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Guadalajara's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Salamanca UDS 2–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
RSD Alcalá's last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat CF Talavera 3–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
RSD Alcalá arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 2.1 for Guadalajara and 1.9 for RSD Alcalá. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Value angle: RSD Alcalá to win at 3.50 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.66, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Guadalajara 2–1 RSD Alcalá. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Guadalajara40%fair 2.49 · @2.00
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.00
RSD Alcalá35%fair 2.83 · @3.50
4.00Expected goals
2.06Guadalajara xG
1.94RSD Alcalá xG
60%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–18%
1–17%
2–27%
1–27%
3–15%
3–25%
From our goals model: Guadalajara 2.1 – 1.9 RSD Alcalá expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guadalajara to win✓
40%
2.49
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Guadalajara ahead at half-time✗
35%
2.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guadalajara / FT Guadalajara✗
26%
3.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
13.25
–
Form
Guadalajara – last 6
LLWLDW
6 Sep
vs Salamanca UDS
2–3
L
18 Aug
@ Marchamalo
0–1
L
3 Apr
vs Racing Ferrol
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Osasuna II
3–4
L
22 Mar
vs CF Talavera
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Mérida AD
4–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
RSD Alcalá – last 6
WDLDWW
6 Sep
vs CF Talavera
3–0
W
19 Aug
vs Gimnástica Segoviana
1–1
D
3 May
vs CD Coria
1–2
L
26 Apr
@ Quintanar del Rey
0–0
D
19 Apr
vs Rayo Vallecano II
3–0
W
12 Apr
@ Fuenlabrada
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Guadalajara and RSD Alcalá.
What is the prediction for Guadalajara vs RSD Alcalá?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Guadalajara vs RSD Alcalá?
On our numbers Guadalajara have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and RSD Alcalá 35%.
How many goals will there be in Guadalajara vs RSD Alcalá?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guadalajara vs RSD Alcalá?
Our predicted score is Guadalajara 2–1 RSD Alcalá, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Guadalajara vs RSD Alcalá?
Guadalajara vs RSD Alcalá (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
