Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
2
Value bet: Llanera to win @ 3.25 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultArosa to win ✓39% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @1.62
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.50
Arosa vs Llanera preview and prediction
The match
Llanera travel to face Arosa in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 18 October (16:00 WAT). Arosa are 15th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Llanera sit 13th on 10 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Arosa's last 5: DDLDL Most recently they drew with Bergantiños 2–2 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Llanera's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Marino de Luanco 4–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Llanera arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 1.9 for Arosa and 1.8 for Llanera. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 71% and both teams to score at 67%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arosa 39%, draw 24%, Llanera 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (67%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Llanera to win at 3.25 – 37% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 67% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.48, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Arosa 1–1 Llanera. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arosa39%fair 2.55 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.20
Llanera37%fair 2.71 · @3.25
3.67Expected goals
1.87Arosa xG
1.80Llanera xG
67%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
3–15%
1–05%
From our goals model: Arosa 1.9 – 1.8 Llanera expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arosa to win✓
39%
2.55
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
67%
1.48
1.62 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
35%
2.85
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arosa / FT Arosa✓
24%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.50
–
Form
Arosa – last 6
DDLDLD
11 Oct
vs Bergantiños
2–2
D
4 Oct
@ Ourense CF
0–0
D
27 Sep
vs Deportivo Alavés II
2–5
L
19 Sep
@ Basconia
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Gernika
0–4
L
6 Sep
@ Amorebieta
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Llanera – last 6
WDWLLL
10 Oct
vs Marino de Luanco
4–2
W
3 Oct
@ Basconia
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Racing Santander II
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ Gernika
0–4
L
13 Sep
vs Deportivo Alavés II
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ Gimnástica Torrelavega
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arosa and Llanera.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Arosa vs Llanera?
On our numbers Arosa have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Llanera 37%.
How many goals will there be in Arosa vs Llanera?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arosa vs Llanera?
Our predicted score is Arosa 1–1 Llanera, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Arosa vs Llanera?
Arosa vs Llanera (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
