Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
2
Value bet: Bergantiños to win @ 2.25 – our chance 50% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBergantiños to win ✗50% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.75
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · fair 1.43
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.10
Arosa vs Bergantiños preview and prediction
The match
Bergantiños travel to face Arosa in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 11 October (16:00 WAT). Arosa are 15th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Bergantiños sit 4th on 18 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Arosa's last 5: DLDLD Most recently they drew with Ourense CF 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Bergantiños's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Coruxo 3–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bergantiños arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 1.5 for Arosa and 2.1 for Bergantiños. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Bergantiños to win at 2.25 – 50% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 64% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.57, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Arosa 1–2 Bergantiños. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arosa27%fair 3.68 · @2.90
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.00
Bergantiños50%fair 1.98 · @2.25
3.60Expected goals
1.51Arosa xG
2.09Bergantiños xG
64%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–19%
2–27%
2–17%
1–36%
0–26%
From our goals model: Arosa 1.5 – 2.1 Bergantiños expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bergantiños to win✗
50%
1.98
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Bergantiños ahead at half-time✗
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bergantiños / FT Bergantiños✗
32%
3.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.10
–
Form
Arosa – last 6
DLDLDW
4 Oct
@ Ourense CF
0–0
D
27 Sep
vs Deportivo Alavés II
2–5
L
19 Sep
@ Basconia
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Gernika
0–4
L
6 Sep
@ Amorebieta
2–2
D
1 Aug
vs Pontevedra
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Bergantiños – last 6
WWWLWW
4 Oct
vs Coruxo
3–1
W
27 Sep
vs Portugalete
3–2
W
20 Sep
@ Gimnástica Torrelavega
3–0
W
16 Sep
@ UD Santa Marta
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs Amorebieta
1–0
W
9 Sep
vs Leioa
5–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arosa and Bergantiños.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Arosa vs Bergantiños?
On our numbers Arosa have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bergantiños 50%.
How many goals will there be in Arosa vs Bergantiños?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arosa vs Bergantiños?
Our predicted score is Arosa 1–2 Bergantiños, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Arosa vs Bergantiños?
Arosa vs Bergantiños (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
