Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Ourense CF to win @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultOurense CF to win ✗59% · @1.95
Double chanceOurense CF or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.85
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗66% · fair 1.52
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.27
Ourense CF vs Arosa preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 1 sees Ourense CF take on Arosa on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Estadio de O Couto. Ourense CF are 10th with 14 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Arosa sit 15th on 8 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Ourense CF's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Amorebieta 1–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Arosa's last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to Deportivo Alavés II 2–5 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 2.2 for Ourense CF and 1.1 for Arosa. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 66% and both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ourense CF 59%, draw 26%, Arosa 15%.
Safer route: Ourense CF or draw (85%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Ourense CF to win at 1.95 – 59% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ourense CF or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ourense CF 2–1 Arosa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ourense CF59%fair 1.70 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.10
Arosa15%fair 6.55 · @3.50
3.38Expected goals
2.24Ourense CF xG
1.14Arosa xG
56%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–09%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Ourense CF 2.2 – 1.1 Arosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ourense CF to win✗
59%
1.70
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Ourense CF or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Ourense CF ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ourense CF / FT Ourense CF✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.27
–
Form
Ourense CF – last 6
WLWWLL
26 Sep
@ Amorebieta
1–0
W
19 Sep
vs Eibar II
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ Marino de Luanco
2–0
W
6 Sep
vs Basconia
2–1
W
21 Aug
@ Lugo
0–1
L
15 Aug
@ Pontevedra
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Arosa – last 6
LDLDWW
27 Sep
vs Deportivo Alavés II
2–5
L
19 Sep
@ Basconia
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Gernika
0–4
L
6 Sep
@ Amorebieta
2–2
D
1 Aug
vs Pontevedra
3–1
W
26 Apr
vs Boiro
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ourense CF and Arosa.
Our pick is Ourense CF or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ourense CF vs Arosa?
On our numbers Ourense CF have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Arosa 15%.
How many goals will there be in Ourense CF vs Arosa?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ourense CF vs Arosa?
Our predicted score is Ourense CF 2–1 Arosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Ourense CF vs Arosa?
Ourense CF vs Arosa (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de O Couto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
