The Segunda División RFEF Group 1 sees Gernika take on Sestao River on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT). Gernika are 11th with 12 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Sestao River sit 1st on 25 points (top of the table). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Gernika's last 5: DWWDD Most recently they drew with Coruxo 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sestao River's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Terrassa 4–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 February 2026, finished Gernika 0–0 Sestao River.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Gernika and 1.3 for Sestao River. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gernika 39%, draw 26%, Sestao River 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.05.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 2.05, above our fair price of 1.87, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Gernika 1–1 Sestao River. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gernika39%fair 2.59 · @2.50
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @2.90
Sestao River36%fair 2.79 · @2.70
2.63Expected goals
1.35Gernika xG
1.28Sestao River xG
54%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Gernika 1.3 – 1.3 Sestao River expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Gernika vs Sestao River?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.05.
Who will win Gernika vs Sestao River?
On our numbers Gernika have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sestao River 36%.
How many goals will there be in Gernika vs Sestao River?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gernika vs Sestao River?
Our predicted score is Gernika 1–1 Sestao River, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Gernika vs Sestao River?
Gernika vs Sestao River (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
