Value bet: Coruxo to win @ 3.40 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBergantiños to win ✓46% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · fair 1.98
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.27
Bergantiños vs Coruxo preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 1 sees Bergantiños take on Coruxo on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT). Bergantiños are 4th with 18 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Coruxo sit 14th on 9 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Bergantiños's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Portugalete 3–2 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Coruxo's last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with Gernika 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Bergantiños arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 29 March 2026, finished Bergantiños 0–1 Coruxo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Bergantiños and 1.2 for Coruxo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 50%.
Value angle: Coruxo to win at 3.40 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 54% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Bergantiños 1–1 Coruxo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bergantiños46%fair 2.19 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.20
Coruxo32%fair 3.08 · @3.40
2.59Expected goals
1.44Bergantiños xG
1.15Coruxo xG
50%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Bergantiños 1.4 – 1.2 Coruxo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Bergantiños vs Coruxo?
On our numbers Bergantiños have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Coruxo 32%.
How many goals will there be in Bergantiños vs Coruxo?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bergantiños vs Coruxo?
Our predicted score is Bergantiños 1–1 Coruxo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Bergantiños vs Coruxo?
Bergantiños vs Coruxo (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
