Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
2
Value bet: Coruxo to win @ 2.40 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCoruxo to win ✗45% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗60% · fair 1.66
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗66% · @1.60
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.98
Portugalete vs Coruxo preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 1 sees Portugalete take on Coruxo on Saturday 19 September, kicking off at 18:30 (WAT). Portugalete are 6th with 16 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Coruxo sit 14th on 9 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Portugalete's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Compostela 0–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Coruxo's last 5: DWWLD Most recently they drew with Racing Santander II 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Portugalete arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.8 for Portugalete and 1.0 for Coruxo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Value angle: Coruxo to win at 2.40 – 45% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Portugalete 0–0 Coruxo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Portugalete33%fair 3.03 · @2.70
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.00
Coruxo45%fair 2.25 · @2.40
1.79Expected goals
0.79Portugalete xG
1.00Coruxo xG
40%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–017%
0–117%
1–013%
1–113%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Portugalete 0.8 – 1.0 Coruxo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Coruxo to win✗
45%
2.25
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.60 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
53%
1.90
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
24%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
17%
5.98
–
Form
Portugalete – last 6
DWWWWD
13 Sep
vs Compostela
0–0
D
5 Sep
@ Atlético Astorga
1–0
W
14 Aug
vs Barakaldo
2–0
W
17 Apr
vs Eibar III
4–2
W
1 Apr
vs Durango
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Aretxabaleta
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Coruxo – last 6
DWWLDW
13 Sep
vs Racing Santander II
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Deportivo Alavés II
2–0
W
19 Aug
vs Pontevedra
3–1
W
15 Aug
@ Lugo
1–2
L
17 May
@ Atlético Baleares
1–1
D
3 May
vs Gimnástica Segoviana
3–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Portugalete and Coruxo.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Portugalete vs Coruxo?
On our numbers Portugalete have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Coruxo 45%.
How many goals will there be in Portugalete vs Coruxo?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Portugalete vs Coruxo?
Our predicted score is Portugalete 0–0 Coruxo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Portugalete vs Coruxo?
Portugalete vs Coruxo (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
