Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBasconia to win ✗65% · @1.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✗84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.25
Basconia vs Arosa preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 1 sees Basconia take on Arosa on Saturday 19 September, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT). Basconia are 9th with 14 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Arosa sit 15th on 8 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Basconia's last 5: WLDLW Most recently they beat Atlético Astorga 3–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Arosa's last 5: LDWWD Most recently they lost to Gernika 0–4 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 2.3 for Basconia and 1.1 for Arosa. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 52% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Basconia 65%, draw 16%, Arosa 19%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Basconia to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Basconia 2–1 Arosa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Basconia65%fair 1.53 · @1.75
Draw16%fair 6.25 · @3.70
Arosa19%fair 5.34 · @3.60
3.36Expected goals
2.27Basconia xG
1.10Arosa xG
52%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
1–19%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Basconia 2.3 – 1.1 Arosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Basconia to win✗
65%
1.53
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.71
1.85 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Basconia ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Basconia / FT Basconia✗
42%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.25
–
Form
Basconia – last 6
WLDLWD
13 Sep
vs Atlético Astorga
3–2
W
6 Sep
@ Ourense CF
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ Racing Santander II
3–3
D
8 Aug
@ Gimnástica Torrelavega
1–2
L
3 May
vs Ejea
5–1
W
26 Apr
vs Gernika
0–0
D
2.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Arosa – last 6
LDWWDD
13 Sep
vs Gernika
0–4
L
6 Sep
@ Amorebieta
2–2
D
1 Aug
vs Pontevedra
3–1
W
26 Apr
vs Boiro
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Estradense
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Villalbés
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Basconia and Arosa.
Our pick is Basconia to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Basconia vs Arosa?
On our numbers Basconia have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Arosa 19%.
How many goals will there be in Basconia vs Arosa?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Basconia vs Arosa?
Our predicted score is Basconia 2–1 Arosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Basconia vs Arosa?
Basconia vs Arosa (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
