Value bet: Marino de Luanco to win @ 2.90 – our chance 40% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMarino de Luanco to win ✗40% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.96
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.41
Atlético Astorga vs Marino de Luanco preview and prediction
The match
Marino de Luanco travel to face Atlético Astorga in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 on Saturday 19 September (16:00 WAT). Atlético Astorga are 17th with 7 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Marino de Luanco sit 16th on 8 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atlético Astorga's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to Basconia 2–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Marino de Luanco's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Ourense CF 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Marino de Luanco arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Atlético Astorga and 1.3 for Marino de Luanco. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atlético Astorga 36%, draw 25%, Marino de Luanco 40%.
Value angle: Marino de Luanco to win at 2.90 – 40% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 58% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Atlético Astorga 1–1 Marino de Luanco. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atlético Astorga36%fair 2.81 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Marino de Luanco40%fair 2.51 · @2.90
2.50Expected goals
1.20Atlético Astorga xG
1.30Marino de Luanco xG
49%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Atlético Astorga 1.2 – 1.3 Marino de Luanco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marino de Luanco to win✗
40%
2.51
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.74
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marino de Luanco / FT Marino de Luanco✗
22%
4.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.41
–
Form
Atlético Astorga – last 6
LLLWDL
13 Sep
@ Basconia
2–3
L
5 Sep
vs Portugalete
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Palencia CF
0–1
L
26 Aug
vs Salamanca UDS
2–1
W
21 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
1–1
D
15 Aug
@ La Bañeza
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Marino de Luanco – last 6
LWLLWW
13 Sep
vs Ourense CF
0–2
L
6 Sep
@ Compostela
3–0
W
8 Aug
vs Ponferradina
0–3
L
1 Aug
@ Sporting Gijón II
0–1
L
29 Jul
vs Real Avilés
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Sporting Gijon
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlético Astorga and Marino de Luanco.
What is the prediction for Atlético Astorga vs Marino de Luanco?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Atlético Astorga vs Marino de Luanco?
On our numbers Atlético Astorga have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Marino de Luanco 40%.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Astorga vs Marino de Luanco?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Astorga vs Marino de Luanco?
Our predicted score is Atlético Astorga 1–1 Marino de Luanco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Atlético Astorga vs Marino de Luanco?
Atlético Astorga vs Marino de Luanco (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
