Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.36Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.00 – our chance 58% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +74%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✓58% · @3.00
Double chanceÁguilas or draw ✓79% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.67
Águilas vs Alcorcon preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División RFEF Group 2 sees Águilas take on Alcorcon on Sunday 30 August, kicking off at 18:15 (WAT) at Estadio El Rubial. Águilas are 17th with 9 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Alcorcon sit 5th on 18 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Águilas's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Lorca Deportiva 1–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alcorcon's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to Unionistas de Salamanca 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Águilas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Águilas and 1.2 for Alcorcon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Águilas 21%, draw 58%, Alcorcon 21%.
Safer route: Águilas or draw (79%) at 1.36.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Draw at 3.00 – 58% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Águilas or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.36, above our fair price of 1.26, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Águilas 1–1 Alcorcon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Águilas21%fair 4.72 · @2.55
Draw58%fair 1.72 · @3.00
Alcorcon21%fair 4.84 · @2.65
2.42Expected goals
1.21Águilas xG
1.20Alcorcon xG
57%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Águilas 1.2 – 1.2 Alcorcon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
58%
1.72
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Águilas or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Águilas / FT Águilas✗
21%
4.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.67
–
Form
Águilas – last 6
WDWWLW
15 Aug
vs Lorca Deportiva
1–0
W
24 May
vs Poblense
0–0
D
17 May
vs Utebo
2–1
W
3 May
vs Almería II
2–0
W
26 Apr
@ Estepona
1–2
L
12 Apr
@ Melilla
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alcorcon – last 6
LLDWLL
18 Aug
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
0–1
L
14 Aug
@ Mérida AD
1–2
L
12 Aug
vs Rayo Majadahonda
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Getafe II
2–0
W
8 May
@ FC Cartagena
1–2
L
1 May
vs Europa Fc
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Águilas and Alcorcon.
Our pick is Águilas or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Águilas vs Alcorcon?
On our numbers Águilas have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 58% and Alcorcon 21%.
How many goals will there be in Águilas vs Alcorcon?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Águilas vs Alcorcon?
Our predicted score is Águilas 1–1 Alcorcon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Águilas vs Alcorcon?
Águilas vs Alcorcon (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 18:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Rubial.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
