Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Barakaldo to win @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBarakaldo to win ✗59% · @1.95
Double chanceBarakaldo or draw ✗80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.21
UD Ourense vs Barakaldo preview and prediction
The match
UD Ourense host Barakaldo in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 17:45 (WAT) at Estadio de O Couto. UD Ourense are 20th with 8 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Barakaldo sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
UD Ourense's last 5: DDLLL Most recently they drew with Real Unión 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Barakaldo's last 5: DDLWL Most recently they drew with Arenas Getxo 1–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Barakaldo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 0.7 for UD Ourense and 1.5 for Barakaldo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: UD Ourense 20%, draw 22%, Barakaldo 59%.
Safer route: Barakaldo or draw (80%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Barakaldo to win at 1.95 – 59% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Barakaldo or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: UD Ourense 0–1 Barakaldo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UD Ourense20%fair 5.07 · @3.40
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.00
Barakaldo59%fair 1.71 · @1.95
2.25Expected goals
0.72UD Ourense xG
1.53Barakaldo xG
50%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–212%
1–112%
0–011%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: UD Ourense 0.7 – 1.5 Barakaldo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Barakaldo to win✗
59%
1.71
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Barakaldo or draw✗
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barakaldo / FT Barakaldo✗
34%
2.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.21
–
Form
UD Ourense – last 6
DDLLLL
3 Oct
@ Real Unión
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Cacereño
0–0
D
19 Sep
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
1–3
L
12 Sep
vs UD Logroñés
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Mirandes
0–2
L
29 Aug
vs Ponferradina
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Barakaldo – last 6
DDLWLD
3 Oct
vs Arenas Getxo
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Real Avilés
3–3
D
19 Sep
@ Racing Ferrol
0–1
L
11 Sep
vs Extremadura 1924
1–0
W
5 Sep
@ CD Coria
1–4
L
30 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UD Ourense and Barakaldo.
What is the prediction for UD Ourense vs Barakaldo?
Our pick is Barakaldo or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win UD Ourense vs Barakaldo?
On our numbers UD Ourense have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Barakaldo 59%.
How many goals will there be in UD Ourense vs Barakaldo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UD Ourense vs Barakaldo?
Our predicted score is UD Ourense 0–1 Barakaldo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is UD Ourense vs Barakaldo?
UD Ourense vs Barakaldo (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de O Couto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
