Value bet: Lugo to win @ 3.40 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultZamora to win ✗40% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.69
Zamora vs Lugo preview and prediction
The match
Lugo travel to Estadio Ruta de la Plata in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 20 September (17:15 WAT) to face Zamora. Zamora are 16th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Lugo sit 1st on 28 points (top of the table). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Zamora's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Arenas Getxo 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Lugo's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat CD Coria 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 10 May 2026, finished Lugo 1–3 Zamora.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Zamora and 1.0 for Lugo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Zamora 40%, draw 26%, Lugo 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Lugo to win at 3.40 – 34% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.91. Predicted score: Zamora 1–1 Lugo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Zamora40%fair 2.51 · @2.10
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @2.80
Lugo34%fair 2.91 · @3.40
2.17Expected goals
1.14Zamora xG
1.03Lugo xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Zamora 1.1 – 1.0 Lugo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Zamora vs Lugo?
On our numbers Zamora have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lugo 34%.
How many goals will there be in Zamora vs Lugo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Zamora vs Lugo?
Our predicted score is Zamora 1–1 Lugo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Zamora vs Lugo?
Zamora vs Lugo (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ruta de la Plata.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
