Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.48Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.20 – our chance 57% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +82%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗57% · @3.20
Double chancePonferradina or draw ✓79% · @1.48
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.67
UD Ourense vs Ponferradina preview and prediction
The match
Ponferradina travel to face UD Ourense in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Saturday 29 August (16:00 WAT). UD Ourense are 20th with 8 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Ponferradina sit 11th on 15 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
UD Ourense's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat Conquense 2–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ponferradina's last 5: DWDLL Most recently they drew with Real Madrid II 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
UD Ourense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for UD Ourense and 1.2 for Ponferradina. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: UD Ourense 21%, draw 57%, Ponferradina 22%.
Safer route: Ponferradina or draw (79%) at 1.48.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Draw at 3.20 – 57% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ponferradina or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.48, above our fair price of 1.27, so there is value in it. Predicted score: UD Ourense 1–1 Ponferradina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UD Ourense21%fair 4.70 · @2.55
Draw57%fair 1.76 · @3.20
Ponferradina22%fair 4.57 · @2.55
2.42Expected goals
1.20UD Ourense xG
1.21Ponferradina xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: UD Ourense 1.2 – 1.2 Ponferradina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
57%
1.76
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Ponferradina or draw✓
79%
1.27
1.48 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ponferradina / FT Ponferradina✗
21%
4.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.67
–
Form
UD Ourense – last 6
WWDWLW
31 May
@ Conquense
2–0
W
24 May
vs Conquense
1–0
W
3 May
vs Atlético Astorga
1–1
D
26 Apr
@ Bergantiños
3–1
W
12 Apr
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
0–3
L
5 Apr
vs Gimnástica Segoviana
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Ponferradina – last 6
DWDLLD
19 Aug
vs Real Madrid II
2–2
D
8 Aug
@ Marino de Luanco
3–0
W
1 Aug
vs Real Avilés
1–1
D
29 Jul
@ Oviedo
0–4
L
20 Jun
@ Celta de Vigo II
1–4
L
13 Jun
vs Celta de Vigo II
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UD Ourense and Ponferradina.
What is the prediction for UD Ourense vs Ponferradina?
Our pick is Ponferradina or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win UD Ourense vs Ponferradina?
On our numbers UD Ourense have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 57% and Ponferradina 22%.
How many goals will there be in UD Ourense vs Ponferradina?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UD Ourense vs Ponferradina?
Our predicted score is UD Ourense 1–1 Ponferradina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is UD Ourense vs Ponferradina?
UD Ourense vs Ponferradina (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
