Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBelgium to win ✓38% · @2.68
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.93
USA vs Belgium preview and prediction
The match
USA host Belgium in the World Cup on Tuesday 7 July, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT) at Lumen Field.
Form guide
USA's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Bosnia & Herzegovina 2–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Belgium's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Senegal 2–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.6 for USA and 1.6 for Belgium. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: USA 38%, draw 24%, Belgium 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.50.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: USA 1–1 Belgium. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
USA38%fair 2.64 · @2.52
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.35
Belgium38%fair 2.61 · @2.68
3.18Expected goals
1.58USA xG
1.59Belgium xG
64%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: USA 1.6 – 1.6 Belgium expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Belgium to win✓
38%
2.61
2.68
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.56
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
1.48
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.61
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Belgium / FT Belgium✓
23%
4.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.93
–
Form
USA – last 6
WLWWLW
2 Jul
vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
2–0
W
26 Jun
@ Türkiye
2–3
L
19 Jun
vs Australia
2–0
W
13 Jun
vs Paraguay
4–1
W
6 Jun
vs Germany
1–2
L
31 May
vs Senegal
3–2
W
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Belgium – last 6
DWDDWW
1 Jul
vs Senegal
2–2
D
27 Jun
@ New Zealand
5–1
W
21 Jun
vs Iran
0–0
D
15 Jun
vs Egypt
1–1
D
6 Jun
vs Tunisia
5–0
W
2 Jun
@ Croatia
2–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USA and Belgium.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win USA vs Belgium?
On our numbers USA have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Belgium 38%.
How many goals will there be in USA vs Belgium?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Belgium?
Our predicted score is USA 1–1 Belgium, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is USA vs Belgium?
USA vs Belgium (World Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 7 July 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Lumen Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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