La Liga · SpainReal Madrid vs Sevilla prediction & analysis
Real Madrid to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.38 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Real Madrid 2.4 – 0.8 Sevilla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Real Madrid are clear favourites at home with a 73% chance of winning, against 11% for Sevilla.
Real Madrid have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.5 per game. Sevilla have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded. Real Madrid come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.3 goals (2.4 for Real Madrid, 0.8 for Sevilla). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Real Madrid have won 1, Sevilla have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Real Madrid to win at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.38.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Real Madrid to win ✓ | 73% | 1.38 | 1.25 |
| Double chance | Real Madrid or draw ✓ | 89% | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.88 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.69 | – |
| Half-time result | Real Madrid ahead at half-time ✓ | 53% | 1.88 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid ✓ | 49% | 2.05 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.81 | – |
Form
Real Madrid – last 6
| 14 Oct | @ AS Roma | 4–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Villarreal | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Atletico Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | @ Elche | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Rayo Vallecano | 4–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | vs Inter | 2–1 | W |
Sevilla – last 6
| 12 Oct | @ Levante | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Oct | vs Aston Villa | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Barcelona | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | @ Deportivo La Coruna | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Valencia | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Espanyol | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 17 May 2026 | Sevilla v Real Madrid | 0–1 |
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alaves | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | -14 | 5 |
More La Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Our pick is Real Madrid to win with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
On our numbers Real Madrid have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Sevilla 11%.
How many goals will there be in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Real Madrid vs Sevilla (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.