La Liga · Spain · Municipal de BalaídosCelta Vigo vs Alaves prediction & analysis
Not both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.98 · bookmaker 1.85 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Celta Vigo 1.2 – 0.9 Alaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Celta Vigo hold the edge on home soil with a 46% chance of winning, against 32% for Alaves.
Celta Vigo have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 per game. Alaves have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.2 for Celta Vigo, 0.9 for Alaves). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, Celta Vigo have won 0, Alaves have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 7.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Not both teams to score at a 51% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.85 is close to our fair price of 1.98.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Celta Vigo to win ✓ | 46% | 2.17 | 2.15 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.98 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 64% | 1.56 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.08 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Celta Vigo / FT Celta Vigo ✗ | 24% | 4.11 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 6.97 | – |
Form
Celta Vigo – last 6
| 15 Oct | vs Juventus | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ Elche | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Racing Santander | 5–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | @ Omonia Nicosia | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Malaga | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Sep | @ Getafe | 1–1 | D |
Alaves – last 6
| 10 Oct | vs Atletico Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | @ Athletic Club | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Valencia | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Racing Santander | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Osasuna | 5–2 | W |
| 28 Aug | vs Villarreal | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Mar 2026 | Celta Vigo v Alaves | 3–4 |
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alaves | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | -14 | 5 |
More La Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
On our numbers Celta Vigo have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Alaves 32%.
How many goals will there be in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Celta Vigo vs Alaves (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de Balaídos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.