The La Liga sees Real Madrid take on Villarreal on Saturday 10 October, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium. Real Madrid are 2nd with 30 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Villarreal sit 8th on 15 points (in the top half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Real Madrid's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to Atletico Madrid 1–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Villarreal's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Levante 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Real Madrid arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.6 for Real Madrid and 1.0 for Villarreal. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Real Madrid 69%, draw 19%, Villarreal 12%.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.44.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Real Madrid to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Real Madrid 2–1 Villarreal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Real Madrid69%fair 1.45 · @1.36
Draw19%fair 5.16 · @5.00
Villarreal12%fair 8.64 · @6.50
3.64Expected goals
2.59Real Madrid xG
1.05Villarreal xG
65%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
3–08%
1–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Real Madrid 2.6 – 1.0 Villarreal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid to win✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Double chance
Real Madrid or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
65%
1.53
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Real Madrid ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid✗
48%
2.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.82
–
Form
Real Madrid – last 6
LWWWLW
20 Sep
@ Atletico Madrid
1–2
L
15 Sep
@ Elche
3–2
W
12 Sep
vs Rayo Vallecano
4–1
W
8 Sep
vs Inter
2–1
W
4 Sep
@ Real Betis
0–1
L
30 Aug
vs Malaga
4–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Villarreal – last 6
WWLLLL
20 Sep
vs Levante
3–1
W
17 Sep
@ Malaga
3–1
W
14 Sep
vs Real Betis
1–2
L
8 Sep
@ Borussia Dortmund
2–3
L
5 Sep
vs Deportivo La Coruna
2–3
L
28 Aug
@ Alaves
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Madrid and Villarreal.
What is the prediction for Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Our pick is Real Madrid to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
On our numbers Real Madrid have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Villarreal 12%.
How many goals will there be in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Our predicted score is Real Madrid 2–1 Villarreal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Real Madrid vs Villarreal (La Liga) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
