Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Madrid to win ✓59% · @1.73
Double chanceAtletico Madrid or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.07
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Madrid travel to Estadio de Mendizorroza in the La Liga on Saturday 10 October (15:15 WAT) to face Alaves. Alaves are 12th with 13 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Atletico Madrid sit 3rd on 28 points (in the top four). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Alaves's last 5: DLLWW Most recently they drew with Athletic Club 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Atletico Madrid's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Real Madrid 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Atletico Madrid arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 0.9 for Alaves and 1.9 for Atletico Madrid. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alaves 16%, draw 25%, Atletico Madrid 59%.
Safer route: Atletico Madrid or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atletico Madrid or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Alaves 0–1 Atletico Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alaves16%fair 6.12 · @4.20
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @3.60
Atletico Madrid59%fair 1.69 · @1.73
2.86Expected goals
0.93Alaves xG
1.93Atletico Madrid xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–111%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%
From our goals model: Alaves 0.9 – 1.9 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Madrid to win✓
59%
1.69
1.73
Double chance
Atletico Madrid or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Atletico Madrid ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Madrid / FT Atletico Madrid✗
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.07
–
Form
Alaves – last 6
DLLWWD
19 Sep
@ Athletic Club
0–0
D
15 Sep
vs Valencia
0–1
L
12 Sep
@ Racing Santander
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Osasuna
5–2
W
28 Aug
vs Villarreal
1–0
W
20 Aug
@ Rayo Vallecano
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
WWWLLW
20 Sep
vs Real Madrid
2–1
W
16 Sep
vs Osasuna
4–0
W
13 Sep
@ Real Sociedad
3–0
W
9 Sep
@ Liverpool
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ Athletic Club
0–3
L
29 Aug
@ Sevilla
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alaves and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Atletico Madrid or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Alaves have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atletico Madrid 59%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Alaves 0–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
