Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAthletic Club to win ✗63% · @1.65
Double chanceAthletic Club or draw ✓85% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.01
Athletic Club vs Alaves preview and prediction
The match
Alaves travel to San Mamés Stadium in the La Liga on Saturday 19 September (15:15 WAT) to face Athletic Club. Athletic Club are 7th with 16 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Alaves sit 12th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Athletic Club's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Elche 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Alaves's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to Valencia 0–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Alaves arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Athletic Club and 0.8 for Alaves. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Athletic Club 63%, draw 22%, Alaves 15%.
Safer route: Athletic Club or draw (85%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.91.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Athletic Club to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.65, above our fair price of 1.59, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Athletic Club 1–0 Alaves. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Athletic Club63%fair 1.59 · @1.65
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.75
Alaves15%fair 6.60 · @5.00
2.73Expected goals
1.91Athletic Club xG
0.82Alaves xG
52%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Athletic Club 1.9 – 0.8 Alaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Athletic Club to win✗
63%
1.59
1.65
Double chance
Athletic Club or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Half-time result
Athletic Club ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Athletic Club / FT Athletic Club✗
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.01
–
Form
Athletic Club – last 6
DWWLLL
12 Sep
vs Elche
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Atletico Madrid
3–0
W
30 Aug
@ Celta Vigo
2–0
W
27 Aug
@ Barcelona
0–2
L
22 Aug
vs Sevilla
1–3
L
21 Aug
@ Zaragoza
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Alaves – last 6
LLWWDW
15 Sep
vs Valencia
0–1
L
12 Sep
@ Racing Santander
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Osasuna
5–2
W
28 Aug
vs Villarreal
1–0
W
20 Aug
@ Rayo Vallecano
1–1
D
15 Aug
vs Getafe
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Athletic Club and Alaves.
What is the prediction for Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Our pick is Athletic Club to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Alaves?
On our numbers Athletic Club have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Alaves 15%.
How many goals will there be in Athletic Club vs Alaves?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Our predicted score is Athletic Club 1–0 Alaves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Athletic Club vs Alaves (La Liga) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time) at San Mamés Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
