La Liga · Spain · Estadio El SadarOsasuna vs Rayo Vallecano prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Osasuna 1.8 – 1.7 Rayo Vallecano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 25% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Osasuna have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.0 per game. Rayo Vallecano have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.7 scored and 2.5 conceded.
We expect around 3.5 goals (1.8 for Osasuna, 1.7 for Rayo Vallecano). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.80 is better than our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Osasuna to win ✗ | 39% | 2.58 | 2.45 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.47 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 36% | 2.76 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Osasuna / FT Osasuna ✗ | 24% | 4.16 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 8% | 12.18 | – |
Form
Osasuna – last 6
| 16 Sep | @ Atletico Madrid | 0–4 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Espanyol | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | @ Alaves | 2–5 | L |
| 31 Aug | vs Getafe | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Aug | @ Celta Vigo | 2–1 | W |
| 24 Aug | vs Levante | 0–0 | D |
Rayo Vallecano – last 6
| 15 Sep | vs Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Real Madrid | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Racing Santander | 3–2 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Barcelona | 2–5 | L |
| 20 Aug | vs Alaves | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | @ Sevilla | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alaves | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | -14 | 5 |
More La Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
On our numbers Osasuna have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Rayo Vallecano 37%.
How many goals will there be in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
When is Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano (La Liga) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Sadar.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.