Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
2
Value bet: Racing Santander to win @ 3.05 – our chance 35% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRayo Vallecano to win ✓44% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.34
Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander preview and prediction
The match
The La Liga sees Rayo Vallecano take on Racing Santander on Saturday 5 September, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas. Rayo Vallecano are 14th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Racing Santander sit 10th on 14 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Rayo Vallecano's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Barcelona 2–5 away. They average 1.3 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Racing Santander's last 5: WLDDW Most recently they beat Elche 3–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Racing Santander arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.7 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.5 for Racing Santander. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Rayo Vallecano 44%, draw 21%, Racing Santander 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Racing Santander to win at 3.05 – 35% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Racing Santander. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Rayo Vallecano44%fair 2.29 · @2.25
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.40
Racing Santander35%fair 2.84 · @3.05
3.23Expected goals
1.71Rayo Vallecano xG
1.51Racing Santander xG
66%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Rayo Vallecano 1.7 – 1.5 Racing Santander expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rayo Vallecano to win✓
44%
2.29
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
66%
1.53
1.62 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.74
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
38%
2.64
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rayo Vallecano / FT Rayo Vallecano✗
26%
3.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.34
–
Form
Rayo Vallecano – last 6
LDLLWL
31 Aug
@ Barcelona
2–5
L
20 Aug
vs Alaves
1–1
D
15 Aug
@ Sevilla
1–2
L
8 Aug
@ Ipswich
0–3
L
1 Aug
@ Charleroi
3–2
W
26 Jul
@ Feyenoord
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Racing Santander – last 6
WLDDWL
28 Aug
vs Elche
3–2
W
23 Aug
@ Getafe
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Villarreal
2–2
D
7 Aug
vs Alaves
1–1
D
7 Aug
vs Sporting Gijon
4–1
W
1 Aug
@ Wolves
0–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rayo Vallecano and Racing Santander.
What is the prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?
On our numbers Rayo Vallecano have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Racing Santander 35%.
How many goals will there be in Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?
Our predicted score is Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Racing Santander, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?
Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander (La Liga) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
