Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid prediction & analysis
60%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
2
Value bet: Atletico Madrid to win @ 2.30 – our chance 50% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Madrid to win ✗50% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.53
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid preview and prediction
The match
Athletic Club host Atletico Madrid in the La Liga on Saturday 5 September, with kick-off at 15:15 (WAT). Athletic Club are 7th with 16 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Atletico Madrid sit 3rd on 28 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Athletic Club's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Celta Vigo 2–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Atletico Madrid's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Sevilla 3–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Atletico Madrid arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.3 for Athletic Club and 1.7 for Atletico Madrid. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Athletic Club 29%, draw 22%, Atletico Madrid 50%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Atletico Madrid to win at 2.30 – 50% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Athletic Club 1–1 Atletico Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Athletic Club29%fair 3.50 · @3.00
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.30
Atletico Madrid50%fair 2.02 · @2.30
3.00Expected goals
1.26Athletic Club xG
1.74Atletico Madrid xG
60%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–28%
2–17%
1–06%
From our goals model: Athletic Club 1.3 – 1.7 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Madrid to win✗
50%
2.02
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.54
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Madrid / FT Atletico Madrid✗
30%
3.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.53
–
Form
Athletic Club – last 6
WLLLLL
30 Aug
@ Celta Vigo
2–0
W
27 Aug
@ Barcelona
0–2
L
22 Aug
vs Sevilla
1–3
L
21 Aug
@ Zaragoza
1–3
L
14 Aug
@ Atalanta
0–1
L
9 Aug
@ Marseille
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
WDWWLL
29 Aug
@ Sevilla
3–1
W
23 Aug
vs Villarreal
2–2
D
19 Aug
vs Malaga
2–0
W
14 Aug
@ Marseille
2–1
W
9 Aug
@ Manchester City
1–3
L
1 Aug
@ Manchester United
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Athletic Club and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Athletic Club have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atletico Madrid 50%.
How many goals will there be in Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Athletic Club 1–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
