Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Valladolid to win @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultValladolid to win ✓64% · @1.80
Double chanceValladolid or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.73
Valladolid vs Leganes preview and prediction
The match
Leganes travel to face Valladolid in the Segunda División on Monday 2 November (18:30 WAT). Valladolid are 12th with 18 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Leganes sit 18th on 12 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Valladolid's last 5: WLLWD Most recently they beat Covadonga 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Leganes's last 5: DLLLL Most recently they drew with Mallorca 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Valladolid arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Valladolid and 0.7 for Leganes. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 49%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Valladolid to win at 1.80 – 64% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Valladolid or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Valladolid 1–0 Leganes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Valladolid64%fair 1.55 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.50
Leganes14%fair 7.23 · @3.90
2.50Expected goals
1.81Valladolid xG
0.69Leganes xG
49%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Valladolid 1.8 – 0.7 Leganes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Valladolid to win✓
64%
1.55
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Valladolid or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Valladolid ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Valladolid / FT Valladolid✓
41%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.73
–
Form
Valladolid – last 6
WLLWDW
29 Oct
@ Covadonga
1–0
W
23 Oct
@ Granada CF
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Eldense
2–3
L
12 Oct
vs Albacete
5–0
W
4 Oct
@ Las Palmas
2–2
D
27 Sep
vs Cordoba
3–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Leganes – last 6
DLLLLW
24 Oct
vs Mallorca
1–1
D
16 Oct
vs Cordoba
0–1
L
11 Oct
@ Almeria
0–3
L
3 Oct
@ Cadiz
0–4
L
28 Sep
vs Castellón
0–2
L
20 Sep
vs Granada CF
3–2
W
0.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valladolid and Leganes.
Our pick is Valladolid or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Valladolid vs Leganes?
On our numbers Valladolid have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Leganes 14%.
How many goals will there be in Valladolid vs Leganes?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valladolid vs Leganes?
Our predicted score is Valladolid 1–0 Leganes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Valladolid vs Leganes?
Valladolid vs Leganes (Segunda División) kicks off on Monday 2 November 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
