Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.95Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCastellón to win ✓63% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.97
Las Palmas vs Castellón preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División sees Las Palmas take on Castellón on Saturday 17 October, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio de Gran Canaria. Las Palmas are 10th with 20 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Castellón sit 2nd on 27 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Las Palmas's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Mallorca 1–3 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Castellón's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to FC Andorra 0–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Castellón arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.9 for Las Palmas and 1.8 for Castellón. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Las Palmas 20%, draw 17%, Castellón 63%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.55.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Castellón to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.59, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Las Palmas 0–1 Castellón. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Las Palmas20%fair 4.93 · @3.30
Draw17%fair 5.92 · @3.40
Castellón63%fair 1.59 · @1.95
2.67Expected goals
0.86Las Palmas xG
1.81Castellón xG
60%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–07%
0–37%
From our goals model: Las Palmas 0.9 – 1.8 Castellón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castellón to win✓
63%
1.59
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
83%
1.20
1.29 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Half-time result
Castellón ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castellón / FT Castellón✓
38%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.97
–
Form
Las Palmas – last 6
LDLLWD
11 Oct
@ Mallorca
1–3
L
4 Oct
vs Valladolid
2–2
D
27 Sep
@ Eibar
2–3
L
20 Sep
vs Burgos
1–2
L
12 Sep
@ Cadiz
1–0
W
4 Sep
vs Leganes
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Castellón – last 6
LDWWWW
11 Oct
@ FC Andorra
0–1
L
4 Oct
vs AD Ceuta FC
1–1
D
28 Sep
@ Leganes
2–0
W
19 Sep
vs Tenerife
5–0
W
12 Sep
@ Girona
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Albacete
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Las Palmas and Castellón.
What is the prediction for Las Palmas vs Castellón?
Our pick is Castellón to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Las Palmas vs Castellón?
On our numbers Las Palmas have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Castellón 63%.
How many goals will there be in Las Palmas vs Castellón?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Las Palmas vs Castellón?
Our predicted score is Las Palmas 0–1 Castellón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Las Palmas vs Castellón?
Las Palmas vs Castellón (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
